BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT — Cipher Brief Experts suggest a range of possible explanations for Iran’s delay in delivering promised retaliation toward Israel after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. Those explanations include concerns over the strength of Israel’s powerful air defenses, the boosted array of U.S. military assets deployed to the region, the impact of ongoing ceasefire negotiations over Israel’s war in Gaza, and above all, the sheer difficulty of how to carry out an attack significant enough to match Tehran’s rhetoric and satisfy Iranian hardliners – without also inviting a devastating response from Israeli and perhaps the U.S. as well.
Even by the standards of a historically volatile region, the assassination triggered high tensions and fears of an unprecedented round of conflict and violence. In April, Iran had launched a major drone and missile attack at Israel that was well defended; the worry now is that Iran’s response will be more powerful and harder to defend.
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